A13: Global Warming: Common Myths P2

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There are many myths about climate change from the ice caps to natural disasters to the rainforests to even our cuddly polar bears. I will present five today, and five next time. It was a hope to have all these myths in one article, yet they were too juicy to contain in one piece. Wet your lips because we have some tasty morsels to devour.

We always hear that man-made climate change has been proven. We have consensus among all scientists, and if not for those stupid climate “deniers”, then we could get real change done. You’ll often hear the number 97% consensus among scientists get tossed around. Let’s see how true this statement really is.

In 2013, John Cook, a climate activist, published a study looking at 11,944 papers on climate change. He came up with the conclusion that 97.1% of climate scientists supported the view that humans are causing global warming. This paper exploded across the scientific community with thousands of others citing it.

However, there were a few vital flaws. First, he failed to mention that 66.4% of the 97.1% expressed no position on the issue. Secondly, only 64 papers (~0.5%) backed the claim of anthropogenic global warming with evidence. A Far cry from the 97% consensus.

Another study claiming consensus, surveyed 10,257 earth scientists and after disappointing results, decided to highlight a group of 77 people of which 75 believed humans were contributing to climate change, hence the 97% (75/77). The survey wasn’t even a real survey with these being the questions asked.

Less than 1 in 3 surveyed even sent a reply. These claims of consensus are founded on data manipulation rather than any sort of legitimate truth.

Still don’t believe me? In 2016, George Madison University conducted a survey of 4,000 climate scientists and, unlike the 97% consensus, 12% rejected the main climate change theory, and only 29% believed humans were entirely responsibly for changes in the climate. The rest were in between. Some consensus!

CLARIFICATION: The mainstream view is that man, through carbon dioxide is fully responsible for the changes in Earth’s climate. Whenever man-made global warming is mentioned, I am referring to this claim. Yes, we do affect the climate, however in today’s current political environment if you even question the above theory, you have just become a climate denier.

Oh no, run for the hills! The ice is melting and soon sea levels will rise 10-20 feet, flooding the coastal regions, leaving devastation in its wake. We have all heard the doom talk, but how realistic is it?

The scientists love to hype the dwindling ice in the arctic to promote their dogma. However, they fail to mention that satellite data started in 1978. The following year would end a 40-year cold cycle that probably had the highest ice extent in the modern era. Remember the global cooling scare?

In 2007, we reached a low point in Arctic sea ice which gave the opportunity for doomsday predictions of no ice at the ice caps in 2013. In 2012, more record-low levels of arctic sea ice were claimed as proof for global warming.

The truth, however, could not be ignored and NASA now admits that the low ice level in 2012 was due to an arctic cyclone that wreaked havoc for several days. The previous lows in 2007 are now tied to high-pressure days, unusual winds, and ocean currents

To finish it off, 2013 ended with a 29% increase in the icecaps. From 2007 to 2016, there was no general decrease in minimum ice area of the Arctic, compared to the declining years of 1998 to 2007. The addition of almost 20% CO₂ caused no change in the sea ice at all! Again and again, data gets ignored yet we are continuously preaching global warming.

All the focus of this region is on West Antarctica and specifically the Antarctic Peninsula. The region was losing 65 billion tons of ice and has been accelerating over the years. The talk of the town was about the Wilkins Ice Shelf collapse which of course had to do with global warming.

The devil is in the details. This part of Antarctica only accounts for 5% of the landmass. The other 95% of the landmass of Antarctica has cooled and thickened over the past fifty years, During the past two centuries, East Antarctica has not warmed, and instead gained 200 billion tons of ice a year. Also, the Wilkins Ice Shelf only accounts for 0.01% of Antarctica’s ice cover.

Still, scary times are ahead as the sea level is rising! Well, it is close to 1 inch a decade which is about a nickel in thickness each year, so if you think that is catastrophic, then I don’t know what to tell you. Sea level have risen linearly for a century with no increase from man-made CO₂ in sight. At the current trends it would take well over 2,000 years to get to that dreaded 20 feet.

Oh my, all the oceans are on fire! They will soon burn us all!

Not quite. Large parts of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans have been cooling. The Atlantic Ocean started cooling at an exponential rate, which is putting all the science nuts in a giant tizzy. If CO₂ causes warming, shouldn’t all the oceans warm together?

What’s worse, is that since 2003, while the surfaces of our oceans may have been warming, the ocean underneath has actually cooled. This phenomenon highlights the fact that the warming is probably just a temporary trend. So much for rising temperatures.

Now, you have probably seen the science shows with the bear floating on an ice block lost in an unknown terrain. It is said that these guys are on a path to starvation and desolation, but how true is this?

Well, we certainly are not seeing it in the population trends. In the 1960’s, the polar bear population was between 5-10k. In 2015 they rose anywhere between 22-31k. Quite the opposite of dying if you ask me. In fact, polars bears have become so fat that they are no longer used as the icon for global warming.

Another claim is that polar bears would drown from extensive ice melt since an incident in 2004 where four were found in the Beaufort Sea. Polar bears are very strong swimmers, and drowning had to do with a storm not with muscle failure. If it makes you feel any better, the scientist who made the statement was put under investigation for scientific misconduct.

Supposedly we are seeing cannibalism amongst our fury friends due to the shrinking of ice and lack of food. The fact is, cannibalism is a natural occurrence amongst these snowy predators. Young cubs can become easy prey for male polar bears if their mothers are not careful.

Overall, the polar bears are flourishing and not on a path to extinction, so the big, scary global warming has not gotten to them yet.

With global warming craze, you may have heard of Mann’s Hockey Stick.

In 1998, Dr. Mann published a paper finding temperatures based on tree rings. He found that the temperatures were rising at unprecedented rates. His findings are called the Hockey Stick because, well, it looks like one. The temperatures seem to have been flat for the past millennium, but rose rapidly in the past few decades. Don’t underestimate this simple chart for “The hockey stick is to “global warming what St Paul was to Christianity.”

If this graph were true, then I would agree we would have cause for alarm. The key word is true. Here’s another graph for the same period.

Notice anything? That’s right, we had a giant heat wave in the Middle Ages, It was as warm if not warmer than the present day. Of course, to say this would quite hardily reject the man-made global warming theory since this was far before industrialization.

If you still have doubts on this data, here are another 300 graphs from peer-reviewed studies you can check out. The Earth was warmer in the past, yet all seems to be hidden. Not only did this deceit end here, but it turns out there were 43 other scientists all using the same faulty data to defend one another creating a giant echo chamber. Science nowadays, am I right?

Shocking isn’t it how much the data can be twisted and warped to fit an agenda. Next time, we will have another five myths for you to devour. Be ready for some time next week for Part 3.

Your humble servant, Francisco Pereira